Чтобы предусмотреть последствия худшего сценария, исследователи создают сложные модели, в которых просчитывают все, от погодных условий и особенностей инфраструктуры к поведению людей.

Произошел гигантский взрыв. Он прокатился сквозь здания и авто, вызвав пожар на огромном нефтеперерабатывающем заводе в Денвере в штате Колорадо.

Производство бензина остановилось на неделе, запасы топлива в штате начали быстро истощаться.

Нефтепроводы из Вайоминга, Техаса и Канзаса направили топливо в Колорадо, но были вынуждены сократить поставки в соседние штаты. Цены на горючее в регионе поползли вверх.

Последствия взрыва является тревожным примером того, как одно событие рикошетом вызывает коллапс всей инфраструктуры страны.

Только этого взрыва на самом деле не было. Это — гипотетический сценарий катастрофы, разработанный Национальной лабораторией Sandia в США.

В своем докладе 2015 года исследователи также описали возможные последствия и других стихийных бедствий, таких как разлив нефти в Бостонской бухте, землетрясения в Калифорнии и ураган категории 5 на побережье Персидского залива.

«Важно понимать, что произойдет и как смягчить разрушительные последствия катастроф, прежде чем они на самом деле произойдут», — объясняет Кевин Стембер, который возглавляет группу анализа важных объектов инфраструктуры в Sandia.

Он уже 20 лет исследует вероятные последствия худших техногенных и природных катастроф.

Катастрофы и стихийные бедствия могут вызвать каскад событий, как дефицит топлива и рост цен в магазинах

Моделирование кризисных ситуаций в работе систем не является чем-то новым. Но теперь этим занимаются целые группы исследователей, команды инженеров и компании.

Это история о том, как и почему они это делают.

Работа Стембера касается не только гипотетических сценариев. Около шести лет назад после остановки нефтеперерабатывающего завода в Калифорнии ему позвонили из Министерства энергетики США .

В ведомстве были обеспокоены тем, что если вдруг на другом нефтяном предприятии штата также произойдет сбой, поставки топлива может резко упасть. Стембера попросили просчитать последствия такого сценария.

Администрацию в первую очередь интересовал вопрос, нужна ли другому заводу дополнительная безопасность. Что делать, если именно сейчас кто-то решит напасть на один из других нефтеперерабатывающих заводов в Калифорнии?

Модель Стембера подтвердила худшие опасения. Цены на топливо поднимутся, а заправки могут вообще остаться без бензина. В ответ на этот прогноз Министерство энергетики надлежащим образом усилило безопасность — на всякий случай.

Но как именно делают такие прогнозы?

Поведение толпы является разной в зависимости от того, кто эти люди и где они находятся — например, на концертах Тейлор Свифт поклонники могут крепко держаться за руки, что затруднит эвакуацию

Модели применяют уже имеющиеся данные для прогнозирования того, что можно ожидать в будущем при определенных обстоятельствах.

Больший объем данных и количество переменных, то более сложная вычислительная задача. Некоторые из самых мощных моделей направлены на прогнозирование событий, которые считают непредсказуемыми.

В таком случае исследователи применяют машинное обучение для поиска закономерностей в данных, которые иначе сложно заметить. Когда поступает новая информация и новые переменные, алгоритмы искусственного интеллекта адаптируются и обновляются соответственно.

Или такой точный прогноз?

«Абсолютно предсказать, что произойдет, не возможно», — отмечает Эндрю Скейтс из компании Sandtable, которая занимается моделированием.

Однако некоторые являются достаточно точными. Например, модели, основанные на погоде, имеют точность более 90%. Предсказать скорость ветра или температуру воздуха на пару дней вперед не так сложно. Впрочем, когда речь идет о экстремальные события, прогнозы становятся более сложными.

Прогнозированием сценариев чрезвычайных ситуаций занимается, в частности, Федеральное агентство по чрезвычайным ситуациям (Fema). Они используют моделирование в прогнозировании ураганов в США.

«Чем больше времени мы сможем сэкономить, тем больше жизней спасем. Вот и все», — объясняет заместитель администратора по вопросам реагирования на катастрофы Джошуа Дозор.

Fema не только просчитывает вероятный путь урагана, сотрудничая с Национальным управлением океанических и атмосферных исследований.

После разрушительных наводнений, вызванных ураганом Катрина, планы эвакуации теперь учитывают мощность водяных помп

Агентство прогнозирует, как справятся со стихией инфраструктура и защита от наводнений.

Когда ураган Катрина ударил по Флориде и Луизиане в 2005 году, заграждения от приливов и дамбы не выдержали. Это привело к разрушительным наводнениям. С того времени модели Fema учитывают наличие и прочность защитных сооружений в местах возможного пути урагана.

Важной частью моделирования является также прогноз того, как будут реагировать люди.

Моделирование эвакуации позволяет предположить, как быстро люди покинут свои дома в зоне бедствия.

«Мы анализируем поведение людей — как вероятно, что они прислушаются к предупреждениям о чрезвычайной ситуации?» — объясняет Дозор. Те, кому уже приходилось пережить ураган на протяжении последних пяти лет, как правило, эвакуируются наиболее эффективно.

Такая информация помогает быстро определить, кого следует эвакуировать в первую очередь и когда отдавать приказ.

Анализ поведения имеет большое значение при подготовке к кризису. Одно из самых сложных созданий на планете — это человек. Впрочем, существуют определенные закономерности того, как люди ведут себя в чрезвычайных ситуациях.

Есть устойчивый стереотип, что люди во время стихийного бедствия склонны паниковать и нарушать социальные нормы, говорит Мишель Мейер, директор Центра снижения опасностей и восстановление при Техасском университете A&M.

Такое восприятие, однако, часто вводит в заблуждение.

«Один из главных наших выводов — люди не паникуют, — говорит специалист. — Мародерство также в реальности случается редко и лишь в определенных ситуациях».

Один из способов понять, как люди будут вести себя в толпе, — это багатоагентне моделирования.

Британская компания Movement Strategies применяет именно такой подход.

Она помогает архитекторам при проєктуванні больших концертных залов и стадионов и дает советы персонала, как быстро эвакуировать тысячи людей.

Компания, в частности, выяснила, что люди в толпе могут вести себя очень по-разному, в зависимости от того, кто они есть и на мероприятие пришли.

Аойф Хант, директор компании, вспоминает работу с одним футбольным клубом Премьер-лиги, который разрабатывал новую процедуру безопасности, как проверка сумок при входе на стадион.

Проблема заключалась в том, что болельщики этого клуба всегда приходили на матч за пять минут до начала.

Понимание того, как может вести себя группа людей в определенном месте, имеет решающее значение для реагирования на чрезвычайную ситуацию

А толпа футбольных болельщиков сочетают несколько типов поведения.

«И мужчины, и женщины собираются компаниями, но в отличие от женщин, группы мужчин не такие плотные, они не касаются плечами», — объясняет Хант.

Поведение людей в модели можно корректировать в зависимости от того, что о них известно.

«Нам удалось на «Уэмбли» определить разницу между фанатами Тейлор Свифт и Эда Ширана», — добавляет Хант. Поклонники Свифт, к примеру, чаще зчіпляють руки во время концерта. В случае эвакуации это очень будет мешать.

Понимание межличностного поведения помогает предсказать, сколько времени может занять выход посетителей со стадиона после окончания концерта. Это позволяет операторам общественного транспорта рассчитать, сколько понадобится единиц транспорта, чтобы развести людей.

Поведение людей влияет и на дизайн новых мест. В зависимости от того, какой тип толпы ожидается, архитекторы могут регулировать количество выходов или конструкции лестницы.

Если выходов мало, люди не смогут свободно выйти, а если слишком много — начнут двигаться бесконтрольно, что может привести к толкотни.

Собственно моделирование и помогает найти правильный баланс.

От эвакуации стадионов к ураганам, все описанные выше ситуации случались и ранее. Цель состоит в том, чтобы исследовать прошлые катастрофы и с помощью этих данных усовершенствовать модели. И хотя ни одна катастрофа никогда не повторяется точно, знание о них помогает подготовиться на будущее.

Это не наука, но она спасает жизни.

Прочитать оригинал этой статьи на английском языке можно на сайте BBC Future.

Хотите поделиться с нами своими жизненными историями? Напишите о себе на адрес questions.ukrainian@bbc.co.uk и наши журналисты с вами свяжутся.

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Также на эту тему

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